What Is a Violence Risk Assessment?
One of the most common misconceptions about forensic psychology is that psychologists can predict who will become violent.
They can’t.
No psychological test, interview, or evaluator can predict future human behavior with complete certainty.
So what can forensic psychologists do?
They can conduct violence risk assessments—comprehensive, evidence-based evaluations that estimate the likelihood of future violent behavior by examining known risk and protective factors identified through decades of scientific research.
Rather than attempting to “predict the future,” violence risk assessments help courts, attorneys, treatment providers, employers, and other decision-makers understand the factors that may increase or decrease an individual’s risk of future violence.
These evaluations are designed to inform important decisions—not make them.
What Is the Purpose of a Violence Risk Assessment?
A violence risk assessment is a specialized forensic psychological evaluation that examines the likelihood that an individual may engage in future violent behavior.
Unlike a traditional psychological evaluation, which often focuses on diagnosis and treatment recommendations, a violence risk assessment addresses a specific forensic referral question related to public safety or risk management.
The psychologist gathers information from multiple sources and integrates those findings with current scientific research to formulate an opinion regarding risk.
Importantly, the psychologist is not determining whether someone will become violent.
Instead, the evaluator estimates the person’s level of risk based on the available evidence.
When Are Violence Risk Assessments Used?
Violence risk assessments are used in many legal, clinical, and occupational settings.
Examples include:
- Criminal sentencing
- Parole hearings
- Civil commitment proceedings
- Threat assessment
- Workplace violence evaluations
- Firearm-related evaluations
- Fitness-for-duty evaluations
- Sex offender evaluations
- Child protection cases
- Hospital discharge planning
Each referral question requires a slightly different approach because different forms of violence involve different risk factors.
Can Psychologists Predict Violence?
This is probably the most common question people ask.
The short answer is:
No.
Human behavior is far too complex to predict with complete accuracy.
However, decades of research have identified factors that consistently increase or decrease the likelihood of future violence.
Violence risk assessment is therefore about estimating probability, not making absolute predictions.
A high-quality evaluation communicates uncertainty honestly while providing decision-makers with the best available scientific information.
What Factors Are Considered?
Violence rarely results from a single cause.
Instead, psychologists evaluate multiple domains of functioning that research has shown to be associated with future violence.
These may include:
Historical Factors
These are characteristics that cannot be changed.
Examples include:
- Previous violent behavior
- Age at first offense
- Childhood conduct problems
- Criminal history
- History of supervision failures
Past behavior is often one of the strongest predictors of future behavior, making these factors particularly important.
Clinical Factors
Current psychological functioning also influences risk.
Examples include:
- Active psychosis
- Mood instability
- Substance use
- Impulsivity
- Anger regulation
- Personality characteristics
- Insight into one’s behavior
Unlike historical factors, many clinical factors can improve with treatment.
Risk Management Factors
Perhaps most importantly, psychologists consider the environment the individual will return to.
Questions may include:
- Will they have stable housing?
- Do they have social support?
- Are they engaged in treatment?
- Will they be supervised?
- Do they have access to weapons?
- What stressors are anticipated?
These factors often influence whether risk increases or decreases over time.
How Do Psychologists Conduct Violence Risk Assessments?
A comprehensive violence risk assessment is much more than administering a single psychological test.
The evaluation may include:
- Clinical interviews
- Psychological testing
- Behavioral observations
- Review of criminal records
- Medical and mental health records
- Police reports
- Institutional records
- Collateral interviews
- Review of prior evaluations
Psychologists then integrate all of this information into a cohesive opinion that directly addresses the referral question.
Are Psychological Tests Used?
Sometimes.
Structured risk assessment instruments can provide valuable information, but they are only one component of a comprehensive evaluation.
Depending on the referral question, psychologists may use structured professional judgment tools or actuarial measures that have been developed through decades of research.
These instruments help organize relevant risk factors and improve consistency, but they never replace clinical judgment.
The evaluator must still interpret the findings within the context of the individual’s unique history and current circumstances.
Why Objectivity Matters
Violence risk assessments often influence decisions that carry significant consequences.
An evaluation may affect:
- Liberty
- Sentencing
- Treatment recommendations
- Housing decisions
- Employment
- Public safety
Because of this, forensic psychologists have an ethical responsibility to remain objective throughout the evaluation.
The purpose is not to advocate for one side.
The purpose is to provide an evidence-based opinion that helps decision-makers better understand risk.
Final Thoughts
Violence risk assessment is one of the most scientifically developed areas within forensic psychology.
Although no evaluation can predict future violence with certainty, comprehensive assessments provide valuable information that helps courts, treatment providers, employers, and other professionals make informed decisions.
By integrating interviews, records, behavioral observations, psychological testing, and decades of research, forensic psychologists can provide thoughtful opinions regarding risk while acknowledging the inherent uncertainty involved in predicting human behavior.
Ultimately, the goal is not prediction.
It is informed decision-making.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a violence risk assessment?
A violence risk assessment is a forensic psychological evaluation that estimates the likelihood of future violent behavior by examining evidence-based risk and protective factors.
Can psychologists predict violence?
No. Psychologists cannot predict future violence with certainty. Violence risk assessments estimate probability based on scientific research and multiple sources of information.
What is the HCR-20?
The HCR-20 is one of the most widely used structured professional judgment tools for evaluating violence risk. It considers historical, clinical, and future risk management factors alongside clinical judgment.
Who requests violence risk assessments?
Violence risk assessments may be requested by attorneys, courts, hospitals, correctional facilities, employers, licensing boards, or other organizations depending on the referral question.
How long does a violence risk assessment take?
The length varies depending on the complexity of the referral, but most evaluations include interviews, records review, psychological testing (when appropriate), collateral information, and preparation of a comprehensive written report.
Can treatment reduce violence risk?
In many cases, yes. Many important risk factors—such as substance use, psychiatric symptoms, poor coping skills, and treatment engagement—are dynamic, meaning they can change over time through intervention and appropriate support.
Need a Violence Risk Assessment?
Violence risk assessments are among the most complex evaluations conducted in forensic psychology and should be tailored to the specific legal or clinical referral question. Whether you’re an attorney, healthcare provider, agency, or individual seeking an objective evaluation, we’re happy to discuss your case and determine whether a violence risk assessment is appropriate.
Contact Utah Center for Psychological Services to learn more about our violence risk assessment services or schedule a consultation.
For more information, see resources from the Council of State Governments Justice Center or the International Association for Forensic Mental Health Services.
Click here to learn about our violence risk assessments.
